By Dr. Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research and senior research fellow with Claremont Graduate University’s Drucker School of Management

I have yet to meet a local government staff member that could not read the room. But when their hands are tied behind their backs—told to avoid politics at all costs—they are not operating at peak performance. Staff are not confused about the differences between political and public policy disciplines. They understand the unique dynamics between thinking politically and acting politically.

They know it means anticipating what might trigger backlash before it shows up on an agenda.

For example, flagging a new fee before it appears on an agenda where activists are likely to label it a “tax” is thinking politically and giving everyone involved the opportunity to prepare. Staff are not going to seek an endorsement of the fee from the local county party chairman.

Politics is about power: getting it, keeping it, and using it to win. Public policy is about outcomes: what laws, regulations, or programs actually say and do. The two often intersect. Both are grounded in research, data, and stakeholder input—we hope.

Politics as an Early Warning System

What is often overlooked in the public policy realm is the anticipatory value of politics.

Political systems theory frames politics as a connected feedback loop. Citizens express needs and preferences (inputs) through elections, political speech in all its forms, and media consumption patterns. Politicians interpret those signals and attempt to translate them into public policy (outputs). When expectations are not met, the public responds through disengagement, outrage, or votes.
 

What This Means for Staff

Staff’s focus on statutory obligations or program design is important. But dismissal of the broader political environment is causing your agency to miss early signals of change. This is not about partisanship. It is about situational awareness. Politics can tell us what people believe is happening, even if it is not true.

Staff may pride themselves on evidence-based thinking, but politics operates on emotion, identity, and perception. Research in behavioral science consistently shows that people make judgments based on recent, vivid events, not long-term data. Policy professionals who do not account for this disconnect risk being right but irrelevant, sharing the truth but still losing trust.
 

Monitoring, Not Reacting

The answer is not for staff to become political operatives. It is to treat politics like a real-time sensor network. This means tracking the origin of negative public comments—sometimes valid concerns, sometimes personal frustration. Monitoring social media not just for sentiment, but for narrative shifts. Knowing which local or regional issues are heating up, even if they are not “yours” yet.
 

Taking Action

Every public agency needs a top-down directive that makes caring about, learning about, and strategizing over politics’ impact on local policy the norm, not a taboo activity to be hidden.

Having a clear, consistent approach to tracking the political environment does not require a new hire. It requires assigning responsibility and making political awareness part of normal operations.

That might mean:
 

• Reading statewide and regional political blogs, not just waiting for association updates.

• Monitoring legislative agendas and committee activity, not just relying on lobbyist summaries.

• Watching for local versions of national debates before they surface at your public meetings.
   

This work can live within your public affairs or public information offices, or be assigned to a management analyst intern. The point is: it needs to be someone’s job, and everyone’s shared awareness.

Consider creating a short political signals memo. Think one page, once a week. No spin, just intelligence. A few bullet points on:
 

• Community sentiment shifts.

• Stakeholder activity worth watching.

• Viral local issues or narratives.

• Legislative developments that could ripple your way.
   

Some agencies already have a version of this, but keep it confined to the executive team. That is a mistake. Siloed awareness delays coordinated response. Read a broader group into the picture. Give them the foresight they need to avoid surprises and plan smart.

This is not about playing into the headlines. It is about anticipating impact. The goal is to be aware. Strategic. Less reactive.

Politics is not always rational. But it is rarely random. People expressing fear, anger, or distrust are data points. If your agency is facing a political threat, you do not fight it with silence, you fight it with strategy.

Engage with your local government peers on ideas like this and more at the ICMA Annual Conference, October 25-29, in Tampa.